Work Package 3

Past hindcasts and future projections of permafrost sustainability

Using the new high-resolution land-surface scheme developed within Q-ARCTIC, we will apply the ICON-ESM to simulate (i) glacial changes in land carbon stocks and their sensitivity to climate change; and (ii) future climate and biogeochemistry changes using a set of future scenarios, with a particular focus on overshoot trajectories. Assimilating all the information gathered by WPs 1&2, this WP addresses the overall objectives of QARCTIC, evaluating a role of the Arctic permafrost carbon pool as tipping element in the Earth System at an unprecedented level of detail. Our innovative data assimilation scheme bridges the gap between finescale processes and the ESM resolution, effectively maximizing the use of observational data, and breaking new ground towards understanding how different future climate scenarios may change the face of the Arctic and how significantly permafrost carbon feedback will amplify future climate change.

Back to top